Who first said "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future"
(or one of its many variants)?

Many (or most!) of the links on this page are now dead. The page is now just a monument to the many different sources that have been alleged for this quotation. If you want a much closer approximation to the truth, go here.

• Yogi Berra
      http://www.workinghumor.com/quotes/yogi_berra.shtml
      http://www.thebigshow.com/BITPAGES/yogiquotes.html
      http://www.lemberg.com/whypredict.html
  
  
• Niels Bohr
      http://www.dailycelebrations.com/100700.htm
      http://www.quotationspage.com/subjects/the+future/
      http://eagar.mit.edu/EagarPresentations/tomsquotes.html
  
  
• Casey Stengel
      http://www.boeing.com/news/speeches/1998/stonecipher092498.html
      http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/creditscoring/present/tsld003.htm
      http://www.flatoday.com/space/explore/stories/1997/042097a.htm
  
  
• Sam Goldwyn
      http://rinkworks.com/said/samuelgoldwyn.shtml
      http://www.nbma.com/news/other/stanford.html
      http://www.itstime.com/jan98.htm (Mark Twain too!)
  
  
• Dan Quayle
      http://www.itstime.com/jan2000.htm (compare immediately above)
      http://church.freethought.org/9901.future.html
      http://css.peak.org/newsletter/2000/dec00/css_pres.html
  
  
• Will Rogers
      http://www.oncomp.com/jan00-1.htm
      http://www.audioclassics.net/html/inv_files/crash.htm
      http://www.chariscorp-wordgems.com/wealth.mistakes.reality1.html
  
  
• Mark Twain
      http://www.climatemakers.com/010302.htm
      http://www.cbi.cgey.com/network/bookreviews/soros.html
      http://www.fraunhofer.de/english/publications/areport/index_ar.html
  
  
• Albert Einstein
      http://www.princeton.edu/~mjjr/ORGO/HT1-01.pdf
  
  
• Allan Lamport (former mayor of Toronto)
      http://www.conservativeforum.org/authquot.asp?ID=1251
      http://www.longwoods.com/legalfocus/12-99/feature.html
      http://www.canoe.ca/CANOE2000/lookahead_8.html
      http://www.issuesnetwork.com/zwriters00_99/1bruce.html
  
  
• George Bernard Shaw
      http://www.archi.net.au/toolkit/sydney-toolkit-pdfs/powerpoint/003-Mortimer.pdf
      http://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/173_01_030700/leeder/leeder.html
  
  
• Victor Borge
      http://www.bridgeag.ch/bdg_pages/e_q_fut.html
      http://www.libertyhaven.com/theoreticalorphilosophicalissues/protectionismpopulismandinterventionism/canindustrial.shtml
  
  
• Robert Storm Petersen (Danish poet and philosopher)
      http://www.diku.dk/~panic/eyegaze/node29.html
      http://www.tc-forum.org/topicspe/sa10thef.htm
  
  
• Winston Churchill
      http://www.isr.gov.au/resources/netenergy/aen/aen6/6keynote.html
  
  
• Disreali [sic]
      http://www.clemson.edu/masterplan/maps/
  
  
• Groucho Marx
      http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm199293/cmhansrd/1992-05-19/Debate-4.html
  
  
• Enrico Fermi
      http://www.eso.org/gen-fac/meetings/starplanet2001/talks/trimble.ps.gz
  
  
• Woody Allen
      http://www.careerdevelopmentgroup.org.uk/impact/0600/herringJ.htm
  
  
• Confucius
      http://www.geocities.com/houtari/humor/english/aforisms.html
  
  
• Freeman Dyson
      http://www.cnr.berkeley.edu/bwwg/gleick.pdf
  
  
• Cecil B. DeMille
      http://www.perkinscapital.com/4Q01ltr.pdf
  
  
• Vint Cerf
      http://www.usenix.org/events/usenix2000/invitedtalks/poggio.pdf
  
  
• Dr. Kerr L. White
      http://www.cfpc.ca/communications/cfp/cfpeabvision.asp
  
  
• M. Taub
      http://www.spd.eee.strath.ac.uk/~harve/quotes.html
      http://pages.zdnet.com/tallbarn/holisticeducationinstituteuk/id16.html
  
  
• Bob Fourer (of Northwestern University)
      http://www-fp.mcs.anl.gov/otc/Guide/CaseStudies/slp/
  
  
• Edgar R. Fiedler
      http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_7.09.html
  
  
• "a famous philosopher"
      http://www.basispoint.com/nl/nl012000.htm
  
  
• "a famous basketball coach"
      http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=493
  
  
• "a golden rule among economists"
      http://www.lgcareers.com/local/millenniumMF.htm
  
  
• "wise/old Chinese saying/proverb"
      http://www.open.ac.uk/johndanielspeeches/Athabas.html
      http://www.usconsulate.org.hk/ushk/state/1997/0424.htm
      http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/intlrel/hfa43149.000/hfa43149_0.htm
  
  
• "Danish proverb"
      https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/
  
  

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Copyright © 2002 Larry Denenberg